We need to protect our health system from Climate-change-doctors

Doctors are at it again trying to scare people about “climate change”. But all around the world, in every study in every city humans die more from the cold than they do from the heat (and by six to 20 times more). That’s thousands of lives and it happens every single year. Don’t these doctors know anything?

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Attributable fraction of deaths: Heat, cold and temperature variability together resulted in 42,414 deaths during the study period, accounting for about 6.0% of all deaths. Most of attributable deaths were due to cold (61.4%), and noticeably, contribution from temperature variability [TV] (28.0%) was greater than that from heat (10.6%). Cheng et al.

The awful truth that incompetent self-serving doctors forgot to mention was that cooler room temperatures allow viruses to survive longer, which is just one of many reasons the Flu Season is always worse in winter.

Break my heart, if “climate change” is real the only thing the docs have to worry about is whether they’ll earn less money in winter.

Here’s the headline:

 Health system needs to be protected from climate change: doctors

Here’s the real news: The health system needs to be protected from climate-change-doctors. We can’t afford to have medico’s who don’t understand the scientific process, who think “models” provide real evidence, or who will use their positions of trust to falsely scare people for the sake of their own financial gain or political and religious infatuation. We can’t afford to have doctors who don’t understand what the error bars mean on rare events or that correlation is not causation. Who would put their life in the hands of gullible fools who follow groupthink or who get their medical knowledge from watching the ABC?

At the very least, we expect these docs would do a basic competent literature search on the topics they profess to lecture us on. Even a freshman doctor straight out of med school should know deaths are higher in winter.

That said, there are many skeptical doctors around. Many of my top supporters are GP’s and Specialists.

 What incompetent doctors are saying in the media:

 “With heatwaves more people will die and get sick from things like respiratory illnesses, strokes and things like that, as well as dehydration.”

Higher temperatures also provide vectors for disease, especially mosquito-bourne illnesses, with the insects travelling further south than usual.

That was on top of more frequent natural disasters putting a strain on the health system, he said.

“With heatwaves more people will die and get sick from things like respiratory illnesses, strokes and things like that, as well as dehydration.”

Shame we didn’t have more competent journalists to ask them real questions.

 It’s not the extremes that pose the biggest risk, it’s “moderate cold”:

Dang statistics tell a different story.

Mortality due to heatwaves, cold temperatures, Sydney, Sweden, Tokyo, New york, South Korea, Canada.

Note the big killer “moderate cold”  |  Click to enlarge

 

Heatwave deaths in Australia are trending down

Heatwave deaths, graph, Australia.

 Posts on health and mortality:

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9.7 out of 10 based on 49 ratings

Justice! Prof Peter Ridd wins on all counts against James Cook Uni

Peter Ridd, James Cook University trial.

Professor Peter Ridd

Brilliant. There is still some free speech in Australia, as long as you are willing to risk your career, 12 months out of action and a huge legal case. Peter Ridd wins on all counts.

Presumably James Cook will have to reinstate him, and he is now free to talk about the failure of replication in science and how our institutions may not be trusted. How many taxpayer dollars were fritzed defending the indefensible? Will Ridd get compensation? Will JCU staff get punished or sacked for  their war against science?

Thanks to Peter for fighting on when so many would have given up, and thanks to everyone who helped fund the case!

UPDATE: In reply, the Provost of James Cook Uni says Ridd was never gagged or silenced, nor sacked for his scientific views. Which would be great if it were so. But there’s a pattern here — how many skeptical scientists do they employ? Is that zero? We all know they went to great lengths to blackball, evict, and practically erase skeptical Prof Bob Carter too. If there are any skeptical scientists left at JCU, they are probably too afraid to speak out. Which is rather the point. Without some mea culpa, and a change of management, or some encouragement for skeptics to speak we have to assume that all research from JCU is tainted — we don’t know what the researchers won’t say or which results they daren’t mention.We don’t know what experiments they won’t dare do. 

Read The full legal Judgement (see especially from 2.12 onwards).


Dear All,

Excellent news.

My lawyers have told me that the judge handed down his decision and we seem to have won on all counts.

It all happened very quickly and we had no warning , and because I live almost a thousand miles from the court, I was not able to be there. I have still not seen the written judgement and will update you all when I have that information.

Needless to say, I have to thank all 2500 of you, and all the bloggers, and the IPA and my legal team who donated much of their time free for this success. But mostly I want to thank my dearest Cheryl, who quite by chance has been my bestest friend for exactly 40 years today. It just shows what a team effort can achieve.

The next chapter of this saga must now be written by the JCU Council which is the governing body of JCU. What will they do about the VC and SDVC who were responsible for bringing the university into disrepute, not just in North Queensland, but also around the world. JCU crushed dissent, crushed academic freedom and tried to crush my spirit with their appalling behaviour. They only failed because I had your support. But if the JCU council does not act, they will be complicit in this disgraceful episode.

Attention must now focus on the JCU council.

I will update you shortly when I have more information, but for now I certainly have a spring in my step.

kind regards

Peter

From Peter Ridd’s GoFundMe page

From the Australian:

“The Court rules that the 17 findings made by the University, the two speech directions, the five confidentiality directions, the no satire direction, the censure and the final censure given by the University and the termination of employment of Professor Ridd by the University were all unlawful,” Judge Vasta said.

A penalty hearing will be set for a later date.

h/t TdeF, crosspatch, Bill in Oz, Another Ian

The Peter Ridd story:

9.5 out of 10 based on 129 ratings

Solar Power hits the death spiral vertical rise in Australia

Solar PanelsSolar installations are rapidly accelerating in Australia, surging in the last quarter by an extraordinary 482MW. This is partly due to rapidly rising electricity costs, but in the last quarter, especially amplified by an extra $2250 subsidy in Victoria which adds to current subsidies like the SRES (RET) which already cover around half the cost of installation.

This is obviously a market destroying practice but will be hailed as evidence that solar power is “surging” due to “falling prices” and “increasing demand”. More fake news.

In the land of the Renewable-Crash-Test-Dummy we’re hitting the death spiral. Every installation costs non-solar owners more (with the tally at $200pa and rising fast) and there are fewer non-solar owners left to pay. Obviously, the whole market has to be changed to ensure that solar owners pay a fair share of networking and backup costs.

If solar power was cheap, useful or competitive, it wouldn’t need the subsidies. Instead, the nation keeps adding more useless infrastructure and wondering why the price of electricity is rising.

Solar panel installations, Australia, Graph.

Solar panel installations, Australia, Graph.

Data: Australian PV Institute

The tally of solar stupidity

Solar is inefficient, wilderness destroying, money-hungry, useless, grid wrecking equipment

Without subsidies the German Solar industry lost 80,000 jobs in a bloodbath. Last year China cut solar subsidies to reduce the price of electricity and PV projects dropped 43%, and solar stocks plummeted. Spain added a solar tax to recover some of the costs and the lost 65,000 renewable jobs. In Japan fifty solar PV companies went broke in 2017 as subsidies ended. Meanwhile in Australia, we’re we are so stupid we are putting subsidizing solar panels on top of subsidized irrigated farmland, and when we aren’t destroying farmland we destroy trees instead. Taxpayers even gave $300m to a Saudi billionaire for a solar plant that made a bare 2% of old dying coal plant’s power.

Solar panels waste so much land, the UK government had to hide their own comparisons of the land needed for solar compared to nuclear power. Even with subsidies solar farms collapse sometimes because the maintenance costs were too high, including unspecified hail damage, and shonky bubble-market faulty installations which sometimes cause house fires. If the shonky installation doesn’t burn the house down, the batteries might insteadRooftop solar is destroying baseload profitability, raising the prices of all other cheaper generators and causing voltage and frequency surges, and is expected to cause blackouts. Adding intermittent power causes supply squeezes that allow giant corporations to scam a billion dollars in price spikes for a single day’s electricity. For people who really hate the environment solar PV is probably the most expensive and useless way to reduce CO2 – in 2018 all 2 million solar panels cut Australian total CO2 emissions by a pathetic 1%.

Solar Panels are essentially useless most hours of the day, most days of the year, and sometimes the entire Eastern Seaboard of solar panels are only working at half speed even at midday. When they are working together they force the grid voltage as high as 253 Volts, making other equipment prone to breaking and even more costly to run. The dangerous voltages triggers some solar panels to cut themselves off, right at the peak time of day when they are actually working. Solar electricity is so unnecessary that when an eclipse wiped out California’s massive solar input, the price of electricity got cheaper.

Australian subsidies are so large, unfair and pointless, in sunny Queensland the state government won’t even tell us how large they are.

 All my posts on solar are spread under the , and

h/t Dave B, and for long advice from ROM (whom we miss greatly!) and TdeF and Robber.

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Weekend Unthreaded

8.7 out of 10 based on 27 ratings

Climate change bad: causes “longer growing seasons” but blamed for allergies

It’s a disaster: More plants, more crops, more flowers!

Pollen, flowers, allergy, photo, free-photos.

Between 1995 and 2011, fewer freeze-free days meant 11 to 27 days added to pollen season for most of the United States, research shows. The Asthma and Allergy Foundation of America, which does an annual survey of allergy season, noticed that it’s been growing each year.

It’s a spurious correlation: quick, build a wind farm!

The number of allergy sufferers has grown, research shows. One in 10 Americans struggled with hay fever in 1970, and 3 in 10 did by 2000. Asthma, which can be made worse by exposure to pollen, has become more common too, with higher rates among kids, low-income households and African Americans.

Warming cycles have always happened, and when times are good, plants have to ramp up the competition — it’s in their genes. Allergy cycles, we can bet, probably didn’t happen so often to paleolithic people who didn’t have access to Ventolin-trees or Epipen-plants.

Could it be that what causes asthma is not more pollen, but changes to breastfeeding, pollution, glyconutrients, diets, antihistamines, histamines, Vitamin D, parasites, cleaningbaby wipes, cesarean sections, less farming, less farm dust, less dirt, and adding preservatives, antacids and antibiotics and other things that kill off our gut flora?

Image: Free-photos

9.5 out of 10 based on 72 ratings

In Australia Climate obedience must be 100% (no matter what the evidence is)

Stating the bleeding obvious about climate science earns headlines

Tony Abbott merely states what no real scientist could argue with. Things are not quite as settled in climate science as people say. For this tiny deviation from the permitted line he is isolated and depicted in a headline as “questioning science” when he’s really just questioning propaganda lines.

The editors of both AAP and The Australian could have chosen a different headline: Abbott declares “we only have one planet”. But in headline-world, which is often the only line people will read, Abbott is made out to be saying something risky. Imagine, I am Spartacus, if every single conservative politician said “of course — Climate science isn’t perfect.” But almost none of them have the balls.

Abbott questions climate change science

AUSTRALIAN ASSOCIATED PRESS, The Australian

Tony Abbott has questioned the “so-called settled” science about climate change, a month after dropping his view that Australia should pull out of the Paris climate agreement.
skeptical scientists

The former prime minister insisted he was a realist when asked about his position on climate change during his election campaign launch in Manly on Friday.

“The so-called settled science is not quite as settled as people say, and that’s my position,” he told reporters.

“Nevertheless we have only got one planet; we should do what we reasonably can to rest lightly upon it.”

Despite this questioning, Mr Abbott said he does believe climate change happens and that mankind makes a contribution.

“We should do what we reasonably can to reduce emissions,” he said.

“What we shouldn’t do though, is turn our economy upside down in what turns out to be a futile green gesture.”

It’s hard to believe with statements so banal and ordinary are worth a mention, let alone a headline. But such is the paralyzing grip of fashion and religion in Australia.

The climate science tally of failure:

The IPCC’s top scientists can’t predict the climate on a local, regional, or continental scale, 98% of Climate Models cannot explain why global warming slowed for years, models get the core assumptions wrong – the hot spot is still missing, (that’s the only fingerprint they said mattered, right up until they couldn’t find it). They can’t explain the pause, the cause or the long term historic climate movements either. Measurements of satellites, cloud cover changes, 3,000 ocean buoys6,000 boreholes, a thousand tide gauges, and 28 million weather balloons looking at temperature or humidity can’t find the warming that the models predict. In the oceans, the warming isn’t statistically significantsea-levels started rising too early, aren’t rising fast enough, aren’t accelerating, nor are warming anywhere near as much as they predicted. Antarctica was supposed to be warming faster than almost anywhere but they were totally wrong. The vast Southern Ocean is cooling not warming. The only part of Antarctica that’s warming sits on top of a volcano chain they prefer not to tell you about.

Some scientists are behaving badly: hiding data, declines, history, adjustments and methodsThousands of other scientists are protesting all over the internet. Tony Abbott is merely saying what most engineers and geologists, and half of the worlds meteorologists, and climate scientists would say.

 

9.6 out of 10 based on 136 ratings

Green fans, born to be scammed. Finally, jail for a $54m fake green energy ponzi schemer

There are crooks in every field, but some fields are ripe for the picking.

If you wanted to run a scam would you a/ try to fool hard-nosed money changers in a mature industry that makes a real product or b/ pick the latest touchy feely fashionable trope and offer their fans, who are not good with cause, effect or numbers, a chance to feel great and get rich too?

From 2005 to 2009 a few US graduates straight out of college promised to turn biochar into energy and save the world as well. They raised $54m, gave $17m to the early investors and then promised 484% returns to later investors. The Clinton Foundation loved them, but they never made even a kilo of biochar. Not long after that the US SEC figured the scam out and shut them down. That was 2009. Then it only took 10 years to get one sentenced to 30 months jail.

If only the media had been more skeptical:

NBC Philadelphia:  30 months in prison for $54m Green Scam

[Amanda] Knorr co-founded a company called Mantria Corp., which with the help of a slick-talking Colorado “wealth advisor” raised millions for a supposed clean energy product called “biochar.”Their pitch about producing biochar, however, turned out to be completely baked, according to prosecutors, and eventually proved to be a giant Ponzi scheme.

Knorr was also sentenced to five years’ parole and ordered to pay $54 million in restitution. She so far has paid $10,000 through wage garnishments, according to prosecutors.

The Clinton Global Initiative, run by Bill and Hillary Clinton, link to Mantria on its website, ambiguously  praise the “committment” and value it at “$600,000”?” Did they fund it, or are we just meant to think they did?  There are many details and plans of how carbon sequestration would enrich the soils of Africa and cool the world on that site, but there’s only one progress report: This commitment was reported unfulfilled.

Biggest scam, my foot.

It’s being called the biggest scam involving clean energy, which it would be except for all the bigger scams, like wind farm rackets in Scotland who were paid £328m to do nothing, and the £1.8 billion consumers paid on giant interconnectors so that the wind farms could make a profit, or the $2 billion Russian and Ukrainian fake carbon credit scam. The Chinese hydrofluorocarbon factory scam, and the $5b VAT Tax fraud and the $100 billion plus dollars invested in scientists in the hope we might understand what causes climate change. And that’s just for starters…


 

From the Indictment Charges for “Green Energy” Ponzi Scheme (2015)

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9.6 out of 10 based on 78 ratings

Landmark: First photo of a black hole (and Einstein was right)

A brief break in transmission now for the first photograph of a black hole, looking pretty much exactly as anyone would expect it to.  The photons caught in this image traveled for hundreds of years at the speed of light. Lots of “hundreds” —  burning through space for some 55 million years.

The numbers melt neurons: The supermassive black hole called M87 is 6.5 billion times bigger than our Sun. It’s bigger than the orbit of Neptune (which is circling 30 times further out from the Sun than we are). This star is 10 billion kilometers across.

Geoffrey Crew, a research scientist at Haystack Observatory commented that “With the M87 black hole being so massive, an orbiting planet would go around it within a week and be traveling at close to the speed of light.”

Black Hole

The black heart of Messier 87, or M87, a galaxy within the Virgo galaxy cluster, 55 million light years from Earth.

It takes a telescope roughly as big as The Earth to catch an image 20 micro-arcseconds across. Eight radio telescopes were combined across four continents and lined up on a few special days when they all had clear weather together. Each telescope took a petabyte of data. Some one million gigabytes. It was so much data that it was quicker to fly the discs around the world in planes rather than try to upload it.

These photons started their journey during the Eocene on Earth, so Antarctica was covered in subtropical rainforest and the biggest mammals were about the size of pet cats.

From MIT News

Working together as a “virtual telescope,” observatories around the world produce first direct images of a black hole

All four images show a central dark region surrounded by a ring of light that appears lopsided — brighter on one side than the other.

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8.8 out of 10 based on 69 ratings

Electric cars are already causing some grid failures in Australia

EV ownership in Australia is only 1 car in 4,000 of all our cars on the road. Yet already they are causing streets to go black, and possibly blowing transformers which need replacing “more often”:

Electric cars are already causing some grid failures

Robert Gottliebsen, The Australian

It’s a crisis that has been concealed from the vast majority of the population … The danger really came home to me when I met up with an affluent, long-time Melbourne acquaintance who lives in a street where there are six Tesla cars.  When they all try to charge their batteries at the same time, the power goes out in the street because the grid fails. Sometimes it fails when only three or four of them try to charge at the same time.

Australians only own 5,000 EV’s at present. Imagine the fun when 500,000 new EV’s hit the streets in 2030, and again in 2031, 2032,….

He talks about intermittent power causing “choppy” electron flows which make transformers hotter:

 To my horror I discovered that cities like Melbourne and Sydney are in danger of either experiencing explosions or even a complete collapse of the system.

Gottliebsen went on to find a solution (apart from the obvious one of “not rushing into EVs”). He found something called the Faraday Grid, developed in Australia, but ignored, so now based in Scotland and used by London and Tokyo.

But give me one reason not to just use cheap clean brown coal for the next 300 years, leave the grid as is, and use all the spare money for medical research and holidays in the Bahamas.

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Midweek Unthreaded

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Watch out for falling Walruses

David Attenborough thinks fossil fuels cause scores of walruses to careen off cliffs. The ABC is crying as it advertises the latest Netflix tear-jerker and WWF fundraiser.

In behind-the-scenes footage posted to YouTube by Netflix, producer and director Sophie Lanfear explained the events with tears in her eyes.

“It’s the sad reality of climate change,” she said.

“They’d be on the ice if they could be, but there’s no option but to come to land.

Actually though, it’s the sad reality of predatory polar bears

Falling Walrus photo

Canadian zoologist Dr Susan Crockford is all over it calling it Walrus Tragedy Porn. Apparently, the Attenborough footage is from 19 October 2017 in Ryrkaypiy, Siberia which was overrun with polar bears that terrorised the walruses.  Five thousand walruses were herded to a cliff.  Hundreds were driven over the edge to their deaths, and afterwards the polar bears feasted off McWalrus on the rocks.
Apparently, it’s happened before and has nothing to do with sea ice:
“We have records of walrus haulouts that are nearly a century old, including some from this part of the Arctic. The idea that walruses are being driven on shore by sea-ice decline is entirely incorrect. They have always done so. In fact there are reports of walruses falling over cliffs from long before the age of global warming too. Sir David’s story about climate change appears to be just that – a fable.”
Buying a Tesla probably won’t save a single walrus.
The ABC doesn’t mention this, nor find an zoologist expert to interview. They don’t even google it. Instead, they give us the-world-according-to-WWF:

“Earlier on, when there was ice, the walruses did not need this place,” he said in a short clip posted on the Our Planet website.

“They are meant to live on the ice. Now they have lost this ice platform essential for their everyday life in the Chukchi sea.

“Many scientists blame this on global warming.

Then for the 4,400th time, ABC breaks their own rule about only interviewing real experts:

“I am not a climate specialist, but the fact is, over the last 34 years the ice has just disappeared before my very eyes and the animals, their natural habitat has changed, that fact is undeniable.”

 Of course, if they’d interviewed an actual expert, or even a blogger, they’d know that ice comes and goes, and so apparently, do marauding mean poley bears.

Should we save more polar bears? Let’s ask a walrus…

Keep reading  →

9.7 out of 10 based on 63 ratings

Australias wannabee PM thinks electric cars get charged in 8 -10 minutes

Bill Shorten, photoI know commenters discussed this on the weekend, but lest anyone missed it. The man who wants half of all new cars sold in Australia to be electric thinks they can be charged in 8 -10 minutes, depending on how flat the battery is. He may be our Prime Minister in a matter of weeks.

We can see how much research and planning goes into Labor Party policy.

“How long does it take to charge it up?” Jackie O asked the alternative prime minister in an interview on the Kyle and Jackie O radio show this morning.

“Oh, it can take, umm … it depends on what your original charge is, but it can take, err, 8 to 10 minutes depend on your charge, it can take longer … ” Mr Shorten replied unconvincingly.

“Is that all?” Jackie O pressed.

“Well it depends how flat your battery is,” Mr Shorten said.

–Chris Kenny, The Australian

Shorten also says that if we do this we can start to say goodbye to “angry” summers and natural disasters ….

Audio here.

UPDATE: The myth that Shorten was right

Seeing the tragedy unfolding, assistants leapt to Shorten’s defense to say that there is a theoretical planned, possible battery charger that can charge in 10 minutes. But read Shorten’s words again — he is strictly all waffly present tense, and the only qualifier is “how flat the battery is”. This is not a man thinking of kW or amps. Jackie O presses him to expand, but he can’t.

In the world there is one show-pony super fast charger of 350kW — but there are no cars that can use that speed. Most home chargers are  3 kW and up to 7kW. It’s all very well for some EV fans to rave about how far new batteries go, but those new big batteries need two whole days even at 7kW to get fully charged. (see that Vector report)

PLUS we’re going to need a whole new grid

There’s the problem that each fast charger is like adding 20 extra houses. The Vector, New Zealand Report 2018  claimed that new big batteries are like adding “three new houses to the grid” (if they are charging at 7kW). If consumers want to fast charge at 50kW it is like adding “20 homes”. (Though at the moment the cost of a 50kW charger is NZ $50,000 which would rather limit the rush to buy them.)

Australians buy around 1 million new cars a year, so that would be 500,000 new EV’s each year by 2030 according to the Labor Party plan. If I read it correctly, according to the Vector NZ report that would be like adding another ten million homes to the Australian grid each year in terms of network capacityand we only have 10 million homes in the country. Could it really be that nuts?

h/t Pat

9.2 out of 10 based on 59 ratings

Enthusiastic man in EV saves 6700L of fuel but loses 3 years

A Dutchman took the worlds slowest car trip in hope of stopping storms

A Dutchman completed an epic 95,000 kilometre (59,000 mile) journey by electric car in Sydney Sunday in a bid to prove the viability of such vehicles in tackling climate change.

The average speed here is 3.6 kmph (2.2 mph).

The world would probably cool if he took, say, 1,000 years.

Wiebe Wakker drove his retrofitted station wagon nicknamed “The Blue Bandit” across 33 countries in what he said was the world’s longest-ever  by electric car.

The trip from the Netherlands to Australia took just over three years and was funded by public donations from around the world, including electricity to charge the Bandit, food and a place to sleep.

Proving EV holidays are viable if you can create a global fan-base by riding on a multinational industrial scare campaign, and have 36 spare months to do what fossil fuels can achieve in 20 hours.

Should catch on with two, three people.

h/t Pat and Tim Blair who says “Non Flying Dutchman wastes 3 years”

 

UPDATE: If they tried to show how impractical electric cars could they have done a better job?

Given it takes 12 hours to recharge the car from a domestic power point and three hours from a commercial point, he’s learned to live in the moment. The journey appeared to go really pear-shaped in Surabaya, Indonesia when floodwaters deluged his battery pack, rendering it completely unable to hold a charge.
However, the indefatigable Mr Wakker simply set up a GoFundMe page to raise the cash to have a technical specialist ***fly in and fix it…

When Coober Pedy was his next goal 260km away, he waited 12 hours for a tailwind and then trundled along at a power-saving 60km/h, with giant road-trains thundering by at irregular intervals. Despite the conservative approach he still fell 15kms short of the mining town and had to be towed the rest of the way…

— Canberra Times

h/t to Pat, and Stonyground in comments.

9.8 out of 10 based on 69 ratings

Deadliest droughts in India were before 1924

Next time someone tells you how extreme the climate is today remind them that five million people died in a drought in 1896 in India. That was the same year a brutally hot summer in Australia caused 400 deaths and people fled the inland heat on emergency trains. Somewhere between 1 and 5 million people died a few years later in the next drought — the same time as Australia’s “Federation drought”.

Spot the effect of CO2 in 150 years of rainfall of India:

Droughts, rain in India, graph.

Average rainfall anomalies in India from 1850 – 2016 from IMD (black) and GISS (red).  | Click to read the official caption.

Famine deaths have largely been eliminated in India, mostly thanks to better transport and organisation, higher yields (thanks to fertilizer and CO2) and irrigation. Droughts still happen but in a population that has grown from 250 million in 1880 to a billion in 2000 the extraordinary thing is that more people starved of famine when the population was only a quarter of the size and CO2 levels were “perfecto”.

Weakened people died of cholera and malaria, and bubonic plague too.  Death rates to these diseases often doubled or tripled.

Famine, India, 1896.

Famine, India, 1896.

Thanks to fossil fuels and atmospheric CO2 countless lives have been saved.

History keeps being forgotten:

Drought and famine in India, 1870-2016

Vimal Mishra et al., Geophysical Research Letters, January 2019

Keep reading  →

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Weekend Unthreaded

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Worlds biggest solar thermal plant axed in state that is God’s gift to solar

Despite the obstacles, the free market just saved South Australian’s $110 million dollars

Crescent Dunes, Solar Thermal Plant, California.

The Aurora plant was to be a bigger copy of Crescent Dunes, Solar Thermal Plant, California.

The Aurora Solar Thermal plant was going to be the biggest one in the world, but they couldn’t find enough private investors so it’s just been scrapped. That is despite the SA government being willing to give $110 million dollars, and the state being one of the sunniest, richest places in the world and with people already paying obscenely high prices for electricity. If Big-Solar could make it anywhere, surely there is no easier place on Planet Earth than in coal-less South Australia where competition from cheap reliable power has been completely extinguished?

A $650 million solar thermal power plant planned for Port Augusta will not go ahead after the company behind it failed to secure commercial finance for the project.

Despite all those fixed, unfair advantages, the market didn’t want to pay up for a 150MW bird frying power plant that would cost $650 million and probably only produce 30MW effectively. (The company’s prototype was Crescent Dunes which had a capacity factor of only 16%). Possibly investors also weren’t enthused about the dismal operation record of that smaller sister plant in California which was beset with maintenance issues and failed for one third of the time in its first two years. That 110MW plant cost $1.3b in 2015 and produced electricity at $178/MWh, nearly 6 times as pricey as the 53 year old Hazelwood coal plant managed in its last month of operation.

It was such a bad deal the government did everything it could to help:

Mr van Holst Pellekaan said the Government had done “everything it possibly can to support this project”, including extending deadlines, agreeing to changes to the project to add photovoltaic solar panels and introducing SolarReserve to potential financiers.

Earlier in 2017, the Federal Government confirmed it would grant $110 million in a concessional equity loan to support the project

The opposition (the same party that proposed the plant in 2017) blame its demise on the proposed $1.5b interconnector to NSW:

Opposition Leader Peter Malinauskas blamed the scrapping of the solar thermal power plant on the State Government’s plan for an interconnector to New South Wales.

He said the interconnector project, due to be completed by 2022, prioritised another state’s “dirty coal power over South Australian renewable power”.

“That was a bad decision and the people that are going to pay the price are the Port Augusta community, but also South Australian power consumers,” he said.

The unfree market can’t save us from stupid big government

That interconnector is a $1.5 billion project that will allow South Australia’s erratic electricity to help destroy baseload power in New South Wales just like it did in Victoria. Electricity prices are predicted to fall, but SA already has one interconnector to Victoria and prices have only gone up everywhere within 1,000km of that.

It takes big national planning to make big problems. Indeed, without the Heywood interconnector SA couldn’t have managed a state-wide blackout in 2016.

In the real economy, $1,500 million dollars buys a lot of electricity, or 6 gas fired plants, or most of one large advanced coal plant that could produce 2000MW of cheap electricity for 50 years (or indefinitely, as long we keep the maintenance going).

Kids are running the country.

h/t to Steve Hyland, Bill in Oz, Original Steve. Plus thanks to Graeme No 3 and AndrewWA in past comments for their help. And from TonyfromOz who says: “Everything about this SouthAus plant is the hyped to the max best case scenario that NO plant on Planet Earth has achieved yet…”

9.7 out of 10 based on 99 ratings

Poll shows Australians are more skeptical of extreme drought, flood and fire voodoo

The message that CO2 causes fires, floods, storms, reef damage and refugees is wearing off

What a problem for the vested interests — it’s their main propaganda message.

It’s witchcraft:

When the witchdoctors ran out of long term trends and supporting evidence they started blaming every storm on CO2. It was a sign of desperation. In more respectable days they would say these were “weather” not climate trends. Storms, floods, droughts and fires are caused by many variables, none of which the climate modelers can predict even ten days in advance. Furthermore, huge 1 in 100 year events need a thousand years of data (at least) before we could pretend to have even a hint of statistical significance that they are not just natural events which have always happened and always will.

About 10% more Australians have woken up

New polling shows that about 1 in ten Australians that used to find this witchcraft convincing are smelling a rat and don’t believe it anymore. Back in 2015 when IPSOS asked the exact same climate change question 62% of Australians thought that climate change was already causing more droughts. Now after a vast drought, it’s only 52%.  In 2015, 61% of Australians thought CO2 made bushfires worse, now it’s only 48%. Then, 57% thought climate change impacted on sea level rise, now it’s only 44%. Where 62% thought climate change made storms worse, now it’s only 48%. These are big changes in just 4 years.

It was a loaded question anyway:

In how many years, if at all, do you think climate change will cause the following?

In 2019, most Australians don’t think climate change is already causing more extreme fires, storms, floods, reef damage, sea level rise, extinction or more heat deaths. On pretty much every factor below, except droughts, less than half of respondents believe climate change is already causing it.

So Australians are increasingly over it, weary of ridiculous claims

Climate Change, graph, IPSOS poll, Australia, drought, fire, flood, opinion 2019.

Question: In how many years, if at all, do you think climate change will cause the following in Australia?

Belief is a fragile thing

Remember, every night on the ABC and every day in the SMH and The Age Australians are told that floods, fires, fish, crocodiles and everything else can be attributed to climate change. Imagine if they heard an alternate view — how fast would the faith crash? These numbers would plummet.

Belief in 2015:

Notice that IPSOS published more information back then. Now they don’t say how many people think it “won’t cause” or “don’t know”.  Hiding something?  IPSOS are supposed to be impartial, instead it looks like they will sell their reputation to the highest bidder.

IPSOS poll

Revive that forgotten history!

The message for skeptics here is that pointing to past storms, floods, fires and droughts is working. Dig out those stories of extreme weather from Trove and historic archives. Keep reminding people that in Australia, 50 degree super hot days happened many times in the 1800s, the worst fires were in 1851, the worst heatwave was in 1896, terrible storms happened in 1967, 1945 and 1925 and 1974.  The worst superstorms have happened every 200 years for last 5000. The worst storm in all history was probably in the UK in 1703. Storms trends are not worse. The worst droughts were 1000 years ago.

Can people from other countries compile a short list with links of your worst floods, fires, droughts, storms and heatwaves? That’s a resource every nation or region needs. I want to set up a reference list.

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9.6 out of 10 based on 71 ratings

Exodus: 10% of Venezuela has left the country

A nation struggling to get the lights on still:

‘New York Times’ Journalist Describes An ‘Almost Unimaginable’ Crisis In Venezuela

New York Times journalist Nicholas Casey was in Maracaibo, Venezuela, in March when the country was hit by a six-day blackout…     “By the fourth day of the power outage, that was when you started to hear shots getting fired in the street,” Casey says. “People were beginning to loot, and the store owners were coming out to defend their stores.”

The U.N. estimates that it’s upwards of 3 million people who have left. Now remember, this is a country of 30 million people. So we’re talking about 10 percent of the population that has gone.

A few weeks with intermittent power and the country is becoming uninhabitable.

When a government tries to print its way out of trouble by giving away “free” money it seems cheap but costs the whole economy:

Rich one year, down with polio the next. Nature comes back fast:

…this crisis that’s getting worse and worse, because of lack of medicine mainly, people are coming into these countries with diseases that should be controlled in Venezuela — diseases like diphtheria, malaria, tuberculosis have made a huge comeback in Venezuela.

 

 

 The ultimate Mediscare campaign:

President Maduro forced visiting Cuban doctors to use access to medicine as a way to gain votes for Maduro right before an election

They would start by going house to house to people. … The way that it was being described to me was that essentially you would start by handing people medications that they needed, especially seeing if they had chronic illnesses that they really needed medication for on a regular basis. And then after you start to get their trust, you would start to bring up Maduro. You’d start to bring up politics. You’d ask them, “Are you registered to vote?” And then actually start to make a much harder pitch, like “You need to vote for Maduro. This is where this medicine is coming from,” and ultimately at the end of this there would be a threat, which is that “If you don’t vote for Maduro, there is a possibility that you will lose your medication.

Oxygen tanks and medicines were being withheld from opposition supporters.

Read it all…

 

The curse of galloping inflation,
Can destroy and bring down a nation,
Best to trade in coins minted,
And dump the notes printed,
To buy food in a dire situation.

— Ruairi

9.6 out of 10 based on 55 ratings

Renewables stress: The daily battle just to keep the lights on in Australia

Who’s afraid of a cascading blackout?

Last year investment in unreliable and asynchronous generators doubled in Australia thanks to government decree. For some reason, adding another few gigawatts of iffy capricious infrastructure to a 50GW finely-tuned-system appears to put the whole national grid in a near constant state of emergency. The AEMO (our market operator) had to intervene in the South Australian market eight times in 2016/17, but last year they had to do it 101 times.

This warning comes from the  Australian Energy Market Commission (AMEC) which makes the rules for the national grid. Why are they baring the dirty renewables laundry? Because the answer to the crisis is always bigger government and this is a reason to call for it.

Renewables stress the grid

Perry Williams, The Australian

Australia’s electricity grid is relying on emergency safety nets to keep the lights on, …

The deterioration of the strength of the electricity network — most pronounced in South Australia — is also spreading to southwest NSW, northwest Victoria and north Queensland, adding to wholesale costs incurred by users.

SA’s electricity system is increasingly operating under the direct intervention of the grid operator, with last-ditch interventions reserved for emergencies becoming a default way of managing the network,…

Systems with lots of non-synchronous generation like wind and solar are weaker and harder to control — raising the risk of cascading blackouts. Unprecedented in their breadth and scope, these trends put extraordinary pressure on the security and reliability of our power grid.” Investment in large-scale renewable energy doubled in 2018 to $20 billion, with one in five Australians now owning rooftop solar and electricity generated by clean energy accounting for 21 per cent of the overall power mix, Clean Energy Council data will show today.

That trend is also pressuring wholesale market prices, with the cost of keeping the system stable soaring to $270 million as of September 2018, while the cost of maintaining frequency control surged nearly tenfold to $220m in 2018 from $25m in 2012.

Spot the trend in Frequency Control payments. The weekly bills used to be $400,000. Now it’s $5 million.

FCAS Cost, AER, Australian frequency control cost.

Frequency control has gone up ten-fold in cost since 2012.  Data AER.

Lo and verily, the solution to a problem the government created is to add more government…

Stop-gap measures propping up power grid

Angela Macdonald-Smith, AFR

Australia’s power grid is only coping with the rapid influx of intermittent wind and solar power with the help of costly daily intervention by the energy market operator to keep the lights on, an assessment of the electricity system has found, ramping up pressure for a long-term federal framework that integrates climate and energy policy.

AMEC could have pointed out the costs of trying to turn our national grid into a weather-changing-machine. Instead they are changing the rules and adding synchronous condensers, giant spinning discs to create some artificial stability.

“After AEMO declared a problem in South Australia that state’s network provider organized to install synchronous condensers which are due to be commissioned in 2020,” Mrs Pearson said. When that happens the need for very frequent directions to maintain system strength in South Australia will hopefully come to an end. It is a timing and technology issue. First AEMO declares a shortfall, then networks decide the best local solutions for them and start putting them in place.” — AMEC press release

Just let the free market back and renewables wouldn’t be a problem…

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9 out of 10 based on 93 ratings

Midweek Unthreaded

9.1 out of 10 based on 13 ratings